Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 15.112481 17.236777 19.515051 22.135769 25.062580 28.225972 31.899089
2025-08-10 11.886247 14.768906 18.092856 22.190945 27.088137 32.732135 39.707527
2025-08-17 10.277030 13.492530 17.375611 22.376239 28.607627 36.076231 45.660246
2025-08-24 8.932511 12.330519 16.609105 22.338075 29.746731 38.936403 51.120149
2025-08-31 7.843972 11.319948 15.860767 22.151131 30.550577 41.279978 55.905045
2025-09-07 7.068201 10.622060 15.422073 22.277796 31.697259 44.046449 61.294383
2025-09-14 6.587636 10.267277 15.387770 22.902425 33.490388 47.691047 67.949807
2025-09-21 5.917468 9.565819 14.796187 22.681155 34.069268 49.686550 72.429977
2025-09-28 5.127855 8.604907 13.743053 21.702222 33.486591 50.009700 74.569015
2025-10-05 4.861960 8.416047 13.801362 22.331700 35.220577 53.620794 81.425577
2025-10-12 4.578560 8.169765 13.745756 22.770990 36.676479 56.873386 87.877564
2025-10-19 4.205003 7.740692 13.369145 22.681479 37.315210 58.941731 92.668199
2025-10-26 3.818264 7.261552 12.887106 22.408476 37.677553 60.647344 97.049230
2025-11-02 3.524821 6.915508 12.593691 22.412843 38.463042 63.012614 102.505586
2025-11-09 3.299162 6.665895 12.436447 22.617783 39.558195 65.871229 108.790252
2025-11-16 3.051421 6.352326 12.144609 22.572995 40.235837 68.095235 114.164836
2025-11-23 2.804833 6.016779 11.786962 22.386477 40.657830 69.915907 118.954881
2025-11-30 2.629049 5.799457 11.620494 22.513573 41.596789 72.580174 125.152614
2025-12-07 2.539478 5.742758 11.738787 23.144297 43.410623 76.715052 133.834234
2025-12-14 2.340802 5.447871 11.394702 22.920871 43.736175 78.416704 138.623245
2025-12-21 2.064326 4.964992 10.659239 21.932813 42.667077 77.750067 139.488576
2025-12-28 2.005178 4.936538 10.794982 22.568173 44.499825 82.010509 148.647790
2026-01-04 1.927269 4.860038 10.829930 23.011569 46.001227 85.753397 157.051149